China's pork production expected to drop 14% in 2022

USDA predicts that pork production in China will decrease in 2022 due to low inventories and a smaller sow herd.

In 2022, hog production will decline by 5 percent due to low inventories and a smaller sow herd, which resulted from significant slaughter and delayed restocking in 2021. In 2022, government policies will disincentivize small- and medium-scale operations by controlling how quickly pork prices increase. Large, well-capitalized operations will benefit from other subsidy policies. As fewer small- and medium-scale operations remain in the market, the share of hogs produced by largescale operations will continue to grow.

Imports of live breeding swine in 2022 will decline by 14 percent to 30,000 head as pork price management by China’s regulatory and planning agencies tempers expansion. However, other policies to develop China’s domestic genetics production and improve overall sow productivity will ensure that imports of live breeding swine do not sharply decline.

In 2022, pork production will decline by 14 percent as fewer hogs reach market weight compared to prior years. In 2021, the slaughter of a significant number of over-weight hogs boosted pork production and dramatically lowered pork prices during the first half of 2021. In 2022, government price controls will undermine hog and pork production. Consequently, Chinese pork exports will fall 10 percent to 90,000 metric tons (MT).

In 2022, a tight pork supply will drive pork imports to reach 5.1 million MT (MMT). In 2021, significant slaughter increased pork production and frozen pork reserves. Higher consumer and institutional demand in the fall and winter months of 2021 will deplete frozen pork reserves. For this reason, pork imports are forecast to rise in 2022 as pork supplies tighten.

Source : USDA/ United States via (02/09/2021)

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