What will Canada's swine herd and pork trade look like in 2022?

Canadian weekly federal market hog slaughter

Now that slaughterhouses are recovering from backlogs to do COVID-19, what will next year have in store for Canada's swine industry?

The Canadian swine herd is forecast to decline by 2% in 2022 following slight growth in 2021 fueled by COVID-related processing backlogs. An increase in sow numbers will see the 2022 pig crop grow over 2021, as Canada adds additional finishing capacity and sees greater slaughter capacity utilization and additional investments.

Slaughter will increase modestly by 50,000 in 2022 as a result. Live exports will decline 8% in 2022 (after 13% growth in 2021) as Canada recently resolved the labor dispute in Eastern Canada, which saw over four months of processing capacity disruptions, which resulted in a greater number of market and feeder hogs heading to U.S. facilities.

Despite increased slaughter, 2022 pork production is forecast to decline 2% as resolved COVID-19 disruptions and labor disputes will reduce numbers of backlogged hogs. Carcass weights will be lower in 2022 as a result unless further disruption occurs. Domestic consumption will remain stagnant in 2022 on a modest 1% gain in 2021.

Canadian pork exports are to remain stable in 2022 following 1% growth in 2021 with continued global demand due to ongoing impacts of African Swine Fever (ASF) in several regions.

Pork imports are to grow 4% in 2022 following a 5% decline in 2021 due to lower production and to support Canadian consumers’ preference for certain cuts. The United States will remain the main source market for imports.

Source : USDA/ United States via pig333.com (16/09/2021)

Image : USDA via Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (tirée de l'article de pig333.com)